Home visitors unlikely until November as Victoria braces for 4,500 daily cases

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Home visitors unlikely until November as Victoria braces for 4,500 daily cases

Melbourne lockdown continues
Words by Lucas Radbourne

The Victorian government have released their roadmap out of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions, with a grim future ahead.

Under the state government’s current modelling, lockdown restrictions will ease around October 26, home visitors will be allowed by November 5, and daily COVID-19 cases will peak at around 4,500 per-day in mid-December.

This is the future awaiting the state’s residents as Daniel Andrews plots a cautious roadmap out of COVID-19 restrictions, in response to fears that the state will exceed its hospital capacity regardless of which action is taken.

What you need to know

  • Under the government’s roadmap, certain restrictions will be in place until into 2022
  • There won’t be a substantial easing of restrictions until between late October and early November
  • Hospital capacities are under threat even with current lockdown restrictions in place

Stay up to date with what’s happening in Melbourne here.

Based on the pandemic’s current growth rates, Victoria is predicted to hit between 1,700 and 2,900 daily COVID cases by mid-October. Burnet Institute modelling reveals that Victoria is currently facing a “moderate” chance of exceeding its hospital capacity even if lockdown restrictions aren’t eased.

“On or about the 15th of December, cases will peak at about four and a half thousand,” Andrews said.

“Towards the end of December, admissions to hospital will peak at about 3,150, and in January, deaths due to COVID-19 in the Delta variant will peak at around 2,200. These are sobering numbers. The notion of opening this place up very quickly at 70% or 60% simply cannot be done.”

The state’s next target is 80% of first doses, which is expected at around September 26. When this occurs, contactless recreation including golf, tennis and bowls will be permitted.

Next will be 70% of the state fully vaccinated, expected by October 26. At this threshold, hospitality will reopen to 50 people allowed outdoors. Travel limits will end, and outdoor gatherings of 50 people will be allowed. Swimming pools and community facilities will be reopened for fully vaccinated people.

After that, when 80% of the state are fully vaccinated, which is expected by November 5, households will be allowed to have five visitors. This is then expected to be gradually raised to 30 visitors by Christmas Day.

At the 80% mark, all hospitality and retail venues will be allowed to reopen, but with density limits of one person per four-square metres.

View the government’s full roadmap out of restrictions here.